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“I fear hope, but I have no choice.” With this poignant and insightful prose, poet Hala Mohammad captures the ambivalent sentiment that now grips the hearts of Syrians, as expressed in the journal Kometa.

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March 8, 1963, December 8, 2024 — the dates mirror one another, but do they portend the same grim fate ? After the first coup orchestrated by the Baath Party, Syria plunged into a humanitarian crisis, accompanied by an economic collapse. Now, this tyrannical regime, religiously preserved by theal-Assad dynasty, is finally fading away. But it is not yet time for celebrations. The “moderate” Islamism of the new leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, rightly worries the public. “We want to believe,” sighs Fabrice Balanche, a specialist in Middle Eastern political geography, “but it seems we are about to move from the frying pan into the fire.” Too many similarities, too many déjà-vu impressions between this jihadist offensive and the one led by the Taliban in Afghanistan three years ago. Indeed, behind his media-savvy image, al-Jolani may eventually shed the mantle of a savior and don the trappings of obscurantism. But hope may also prevail. The Syrian people’s resistance is not limited to defying Bashar al-Assad’s hegemony. As L’Orient-Le Jour recently reported, Syrians continue to resist efforts to entrench Islamism. They notably succeeded in pushing HTS back on the issue of the Islamization of school textbooks. Twelve pages of adjustments, intended to introduce a new religious tint to the education system, had to be removed under pressure from critics.

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A race against time is underway. The coming months will be crucial in shaping the future of the cradle of the Arab Spring. The Syrian powder keg could sink further into chaos and fragmentation, or it could rise from the ashes and regain its former prestige. Let us not forget the legendary past of this country, which has seen the rise and fall of the Canaanites, Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, and later the splendor of the Umayyads. Everything will depend on the artisans capable of charting the country’s political, economic, and cultural future, one shaped by history.

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Syria at the crossroads of geopolitical reorientations

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The speed of the Syrian regime’s collapse reflects not only an acceleration of its national history but also that of the broader MENA(Middle East and North Africa) region. Geostrategically, we are witnessing a major turning point : the weakening of the resistance axis, which includes countries orbiting around Tehran. Syria had previously served as a “transit country” for arms meant for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Tehran-backed militias. However, HTS’s rise to power is redrawing regional alliances, weakening the influence of the historical Shiite arc stretching from Tehran to southern Lebanon.

Under the auspices of its Turkish ally, the Sunni movement seems, for now, to be distancing itself from Iran and opening up toother Gulf states, which are themselves Sunni and, more importantly, keyplayers in Syria’s reconstruction. Long excluded from the Arab League after the brutal suppression of the 2011 uprising, Damascus was reintegrated into the organization on May 7, 2023. Though delayed, this reintegration has already paved the way for a strengthened dialogue with Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, which reopened its embassy in Damascus in 2019. These rapprochements mark the beginning of a new chapter for a country once regarded as the “crossroads of the Middle East,” as Patrick Seale put it in The Struggle for Syria. To regain its position as a center of Sunni power, Damascus would do well, in the long term, to draw closer to the West. Although cautiously, al-Jolani, former governor of north western Syria and now leader of HTS, seems to have understood this strategy. So far, the traditional specter of the Zionist enemy, presented as the ultimate Western threat, has not been invoked by the new regime. Moreover, HTS has expressed its intent to protect minorities living within its territory. While this statement likely targets the Alawites, allies of the regime, it remains to be seen whether it will extend to the Kurds and Eastern Christians, who were long oppressed under the former regime.

Damascus : A capital in jubilation facing an uncertain future

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In general, Damascenes, regardless of their origins, are swept up in a wave of joy. Tomorrow could well mark the start of a new battle for freedom and democracy, but today, an unsustainable dictatorship has taken its final bow. Franco-Syrian journalist Hala Kodmanire counted the euphoria that filled the central square of the capital, which was renamed “Place of the Disappeared” in honor of those lost. Some of their faces are now reappearing, such as those of prisoners finally escaping the Saidnaya prison complex, 30 kilometers from the city, but not only. How could we not mention the radiant face of Nissan Ibrahim, the symbol of the Syrian revolution? Originally from Raqqa, raised on books and dreams of independence, she dedicated her life to imagining the reconstruction of apost-Bashar Syria, participating in roundtables and posting her demands on Facebook. Executed in 2015, her last words were: “At the start of the revolution, we hid my father’s religious books for fear of regime raids. Now, my mother asks me to hide my philosophy books because of Daesh… Long live freedom!” The echo of her voice now resonates through the streets of Damascus.

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Behind the chants and embraces in this new gathering place, the harsh reality of the people’s daily life remains to be reshaped. Eight out of ten Syrians live below the poverty line, and just two days after the regime’s collapse, the prices of bread and gasoline soared. With only two or three hours of electricity a day, the capital, like the rest of the country, is drained. Yet, like a faint but miraculous light in the darkness, a paradox is emerging : although Syrian society remains fragmented by extreme deprivation, as well as by ethnic, religious, and political rivalries, a phenomenon of interdependence is starting to take shape. Syrians, forced into extraordinary resilience, are increasingly relying on informal social structures. A retired officer, living in the suburbs of Damascus, recounted how he, along with his friends, had managed to mobilize local resources to address the emergency: garment factories donate clothes, food producers offer essential goods. Alongside this internal solidarity, there is the ongoing support from Syrian expatriates, who continue to send essential remittances. According to Al-Watan, these transfers amount to $3.6 billion annually,providing a lifeline to a moribund economy. Furthermore, hope is nourished by international initiatives. Projects like The Day Afterby the Arab Reform Initiative, supported by committed figures like Bassma Kodmani, aim to prepare for a viable democratic transition.

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Rebalancing Syria’s economy: toward fragile autonomy and emergent reconstruction

However, the path to reconstruction remains erratic. Today, Syria’s economic profile is that of a low-income country, far removed from the days when it was considered a fast-growing, middle- income economy. Agricultural production, once a pillar of Syria’s economy, has withered, increasing the country’s dependence on imports. Between 2011 and 2023, nearly half of Syria’s oil needs and a third of its national cereal consumption were met through imports. Oil production, already weakened, continues to decline, with an additional 6% drop in 2023. Yet, encouraging signs are emerging. Underal-Jolani’s governance, essential services have been restored in HTS-controlled areas, such as waste collection, transportation, and communications. These initiatives could be a crucial lever in planning the country’s reconstruction. As economists from Barclays note, restoring these basic infrastructures could attract foreign investors and international donors.

These initiatives, though still fragile, may mark the beginning of a lasting transformation. History has often shown that autocratic regimes, even those rooted in politico-religious ideologies, have an expiration date. Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Omar el-Bashir in Sudan, Gaddafi in Libya, and AliAbdullah Saleh in Yemen… The game always ends in checkmate (shah mat).

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Sources :

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Chute de Bachar el-Assad en Syrie : quel impact sur le Moyen-Orient ?

Courrier International - le chiffre du jour, la Syrie sous perfusion avec l'argent envoyépar la diaspora

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Les Échos - Afrique, Moyen Orient, Syrie : les chiffres vertigineux d'une économie à totalement reconstruire

L'Orient-Le Jour - Syrie : HTC fait marche arrière après unecontroverse sur la refonte du programme scolaire

LePoint - la guerre en Syrie : une apocalypse culturelle pour les joyaux dupatrimoine Le Point - Nissan, une voix dans l'enfer de Raqqa
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Orient XXI -Survie, recompositions et résistances de lasociété syrienne

Radio France- Les Enjeux Internationaux : les Kurdes de Syrie, victimes collatérales de la chute du régime d'Assad

Revue Conflits - Offensive djihadiste à Alep analyse du basculement syrien Syrie vers l’éclatement du pays ?Analyse de Fabrice Balanche
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The StruggleFor Syria - Patrick Seale

Crédits image : Iris France - Syrie : Bachar el-Assada gagné la guerre mas pas encorela paix

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